Tuesday, August 16, 2011

If you were "Big Brown's" connections, would you have chosen the #20 post over the inside posts?

Voluntarily breaking your speed horse from the outside of 20 is ludicrous... it's a sure sign of insanity. Ok, if you're afraid of getting a bad break, then draw the 18 post that was still available... but no, let's break him from the outside of all 20. I just don't understand it. Maybe it wasn an attempt to show confidence in him to show that he's not going to make any difference so I'll go ahead and take the hardest one... but I really don't understand that method... you don't want to give your horse any advantage at all? whatever. Breaking outside 12 mediocre horses is a lot different from breaking outside of a 20 horse field full of speed and talented horses... You're taking a big gamble on the umption that your horse is going to break well and run around the field and not be caught wide and shuffled back on the first turn. I don't see it happening in this race. I don't see him breaking so spectacularly that he clears the field in the first quarter and and cuts all the way in to the rail from the 20 post. That was possible in the Florida Derby because there was no pace... Here there is some pace and the inside horses are gonna get a huge lead while big brown has to make up the distance to get nearer to the rail. He'll be 5 wide on the first turn and horses don't make up ground from there, they lose it. He's going to be shuffled back to mid pack with an outside trip the whole way. i was acutally considering betting him if he got a good post... I've been arguing against him for a long time but I thought that if he got a good post he has the talent to beat this field... now I don't think he even makes it into the exotics. He's never had the kind of trip he's going to get in the derby. I don't care how high on your horse you are and how talented you think it is... There's no rational reason ever to send your horse into a 20 horse field in his 4th start (his second stakes try) and purposely choose to end him to the outside post. Dutrow clearly has Derby Fever... someone take him to the hospital.

No comments:

Post a Comment